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1.
Infection ; 2023 Feb 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2244247

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The use of remdesivir (RDV) as the first drug approved for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains controversial. Based on the Lean European Open Survey on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected patients (LEOSS), we aim to contribute timing-focused complementary real-world insights to its evaluation. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 infected patients between January 2020 and December 2021 treated with RDV were matched 1:1 to controls considering sociodemographics, comorbidities and clinical status. Multiple imputations were used to account for missing data. Effects on fatal outcome were estimated using uni- and multivariable Cox regression models. RESULTS: We included 9,687 patients. For those starting RDV administration in the complicated phase, Cox regression for fatal outcome showed an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 0.59 (95%CI 0.41-0.83). Positive trends could be obtained for further scenarios: an aHR of 0.51 (95%CI 0.16-1.68) when RDV was initiated in uncomplicated and of 0.76 (95% CI 0.55-1.04) in a critical phase of disease. Patients receiving RDV with concomitant steroids exhibited a further reduction in aHR in both, the complicated (aHR 0.50, 95%CI 0.29-0.88) and critical phase (aHR 0.63, 95%CI 0.39-1.02). CONCLUSION: Our study results elucidate that RDV use, in particular when initiated in the complicated phase and accompanied by steroids is associated with improved mortality. However, given the limitations of non-randomized trials in estimating the magnitude of the benefit of an intervention, further randomized trials focusing on the timing of therapy initiation seem warranted.

2.
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 89, 2023 Feb 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2242286

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Studies investigating risk factors for severe COVID-19 often lack information on the representativeness of the study population. Here, we investigate factors associated with severe COVID-19 and compare the representativeness of the dataset to the general population. METHODS: We used data from the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 infected patients (LEOSS) of hospitalized COVID-19 patients diagnosed in 2020 in Germany to identify associated factors for severe COVID-19, defined as progressing to a critical disease stage or death. To assess the representativeness, we compared the LEOSS cohort to cases of hospitalized patients in the German statutory notification data of the same time period. Descriptive methods and Poisson regression models were used. RESULTS: Overall, 6672 hospitalized patients from LEOSS and 132,943 hospitalized cases from the German statutory notification data were included. In LEOSS, patients above 76 years were less likely represented (34.3% vs. 44.1%). Moreover, mortality was lower (14.3% vs. 21.5%) especially among age groups above 66 years. Factors associated with a severe COVID-19 disease course in LEOSS included increasing age, male sex (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.53-1.86), prior stem cell transplantation (aRR 2.27, 95% CI 1.53-3.38), and an elevated C-reactive protein at day of diagnosis (aRR 2.30, 95% CI 2.03-2.62). CONCLUSION: We identified a broad range of factors associated with severe COVID-19 progression. However, the results may be less applicable for persons above 66 years since they experienced lower mortality in the LEOSS dataset compared to the statutory notification data.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation , Humans , Male , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Patient Acuity , Germany/epidemiology , Hospitalization
3.
Methods Inf Med ; 62(S 01): e47-e56, 2023 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2237390

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: As a national effort to better understand the current pandemic, three cohorts collect sociodemographic and clinical data from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients from different target populations within the German National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON). Furthermore, the German Corona Consensus Dataset (GECCO) was introduced as a harmonized basic information model for COVID-19 patients in clinical routine. To compare the cohort data with other GECCO-based studies, data items are mapped to GECCO. As mapping from one information model to another is complex, an additional consistency evaluation of the mapped items is recommended to detect possible mapping issues or source data inconsistencies. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this work is to assure high consistency of research data mapped to the GECCO data model. In particular, it aims at identifying contradictions within interdependent GECCO data items of the German national COVID-19 cohorts to allow investigation of possible reasons for identified contradictions. We furthermore aim at enabling other researchers to easily perform data quality evaluation on GECCO-based datasets and adapt to similar data models. METHODS: All suitable data items from each of the three NAPKON cohorts are mapped to the GECCO items. A consistency assessment tool (dqGecco) is implemented, following the design of an existing quality assessment framework, retaining their-defined consistency taxonomies, including logical and empirical contradictions. Results of the assessment are verified independently on the primary data source. RESULTS: Our consistency assessment tool helped in correcting the mapping procedure and reveals remaining contradictory value combinations within COVID-19 symptoms, vital signs, and COVID-19 severity. Consistency rates differ between the different indicators and cohorts ranging from 95.84% up to 100%. CONCLUSION: An efficient and portable tool capable of discovering inconsistencies in the COVID-19 domain has been developed and applied to three different cohorts. As the GECCO dataset is employed in different platforms and studies, the tool can be directly applied there or adapted to similar information models.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Data Accuracy , Humans , Consensus , Pandemics , Quality Indicators, Health Care , COVID-19/epidemiology , Data Collection
4.
Infection ; 2022 Apr 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2234414

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Patients suffering from chronic kidney disease (CKD) are in general at high risk for severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) but dialysis-dependency (CKD5D) is poorly understood. We aimed to describe CKD5D patients in the different intervals of the pandemic and to evaluate pre-existing dialysis dependency as a potential risk factor for mortality. METHODS: In this multicentre cohort study, data from German study sites of the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients (LEOSS) were used. We multiply imputed missing data, performed subsequent analyses in each of the imputed data sets and pooled the results. Cases (CKD5D) and controls (CKD not requiring dialysis) were matched 1:1 by propensity-scoring. Effects on fatal outcome were calculated by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 207 patients suffering from CKD5D and 964 potential controls. Multivariable regression of the whole cohort identified age (> 85 years adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 7.34, 95% CI 2.45-21.99), chronic heart failure (aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.25-2.23), coronary artery disease (aOR 1.41, 95% CI 1.05-1.89) and active oncological disease (aOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.07-2.80) as risk factors for fatal outcome. Dialysis-dependency was not associated with a fatal outcome-neither in this analysis (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 0.75-1.54) nor in the conditional multivariable regression after matching (aOR 1.34, 95% CI 0.70-2.59). CONCLUSIONS: In the present multicentre German cohort, dialysis dependency is not linked to fatal outcome in SARS-CoV-2-infected CKD patients. However, the mortality rate of 26% demonstrates that CKD patients are an extreme vulnerable population, irrespective of pre-existing dialysis-dependency.

5.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 19035, 2022 Nov 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2106464

ABSTRACT

Establishing the optimal treatment for COVID-19 patients remains challenging. Specifically, immunocompromised and pre-diseased patients are at high risk for severe disease course and face limited therapeutic options. Convalescent plasma (CP) has been considered as therapeutic approach, but reliable data are lacking, especially for high-risk patients. We performed a retrospective analysis of 55 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from University Hospital Duesseldorf (UKD) at high risk for disease progression, in a substantial proportion due to immunosuppression from cancer, solid organ transplantation, autoimmune disease, dialysis. A matched-pairs analysis (1:4) was performed with 220 patients from the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected Patients (LEOSS) who were treated or not treated with CP. Both cohorts had high mortality (UKD 41.8%, LEOSS 34.1%). A matched-pairs analysis showed no significant effect on mortality. CP administration before the formation of pulmonary infiltrates showed the lowest mortality in both cohorts (10%), whereas mortality in the complicated phase was 27.8%. CP administration during the critical phase revealed the highest mortality: UKD 60.9%, LEOSS 48.3%. In our cohort of COVID-19 patients with severe comorbidities CP did not significantly reduce mortality in a retrospective matched-pairs analysis. However, our data supports the concept that a reduction in mortality is achievable by early CP administration.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/therapy , Matched-Pair Analysis , Retrospective Studies , Renal Dialysis , Immunization, Passive , COVID-19 Serotherapy
6.
PLoS One ; 17(7): e0271822, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1968871

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a severe disease with a high need for intensive care treatment and a high mortality rate in hospitalized patients. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the clinical characteristics and the management of patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the acute medical and intensive care setting. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of dying patients enrolled in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS), a non-interventional cohort study, between March 18 and November 18, 2020. Symptoms, comorbidities and management of patients, including palliative care involvement, were compared between general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) by univariate analysis. RESULTS: 580/4310 (13%) SARS-CoV-2 infected patients died. Among 580 patients 67% were treated on ICU and 33% on a general ward. The spectrum of comorbidities and symptoms was broad with more comorbidities (≥ four comorbidities: 52% versus 25%) and a higher age distribution (>65 years: 98% versus 70%) in patients on the general ward. 69% of patients were in an at least complicated phase at diagnosis of the SARS-CoV-2 infection with a higher proportion of patients in a critical phase or dying the day of diagnosis treated on ICU (36% versus 11%). While most patients admitted to ICU came from home (71%), patients treated on the general ward came likewise from home and nursing home (44% respectively) and were more frequently on palliative care before admission (29% versus 7%). A palliative care team was involved in dying patients in 15%. Personal contacts were limited but more often documented in patients treated on ICU (68% versus 47%). CONCLUSION: Patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection suffer from high symptom burden and often deteriorate early with a demand for ICU treatment. Therefor a demand for palliative care expertise with early involvement seems to exist.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Cohort Studies , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Patients' Rooms , Registries , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 37(8): 849-870, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1966157

ABSTRACT

The German government initiated the Network University Medicine (NUM) in early 2020 to improve national research activities on the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. To this end, 36 German Academic Medical Centers started to collaborate on 13 projects, with the largest being the National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON). The NAPKON's goal is creating the most comprehensive Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cohort in Germany. Within NAPKON, adult and pediatric patients are observed in three complementary cohort platforms (Cross-Sectoral, High-Resolution and Population-Based) from the initial infection until up to three years of follow-up. Study procedures comprise comprehensive clinical and imaging diagnostics, quality-of-life assessment, patient-reported outcomes and biosampling. The three cohort platforms build on four infrastructure core units (Interaction, Biosampling, Epidemiology, and Integration) and collaborations with NUM projects. Key components of the data capture, regulatory, and data privacy are based on the German Centre for Cardiovascular Research. By April 01, 2022, 34 university and 40 non-university hospitals have enrolled 5298 patients with local data quality reviews performed on 4727 (89%). 47% were female, the median age was 52 (IQR 36-62-) and 50 pediatric cases were included. 44% of patients were hospitalized, 15% admitted to an intensive care unit, and 12% of patients deceased while enrolled. 8845 visits with biosampling in 4349 patients were conducted by April 03, 2022. In this overview article, we summarize NAPKON's design, relevant milestones including first study population characteristics, and outline the potential of NAPKON for German and international research activities.Trial registration https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04768998 . https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04747366 . https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04679584.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Clinical Trials as Topic , Female , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , Research Design , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Gesundheitswesen ; 83(S 01): S45-S53, 2021 Nov.
Article in German | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1500783

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought opportunities and challenges, especially for health services research based on routine data. In this article we will demonstrate this by presenting lessons learned from establishing the currently largest registry in Germany providing a detailed clinical dataset on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected patients: the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS). METHODS: LEOSS is based on a collaborative and integrative research approach with anonymous recruitment and collection of routine data and the early provision of data in an open science context. The only requirement for inclusion was a SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by virological diagnosis. Crucial strategies to successfully realize the project included the dynamic reallocation of available staff and technical resources, an early and direct involvement of data protection experts and the ethics committee as well as the decision for an iterative and dynamic process of improvement and further development. RESULTS: Thanks to the commitment of numerous institutions, a transsectoral and transnational network of currently 133 actively recruiting sites with 7,227 documented cases could be established (status: 18.03.2021). Tools for data exploration on the project website, as well as the partially automated provision of datasets according to use cases with varying requirements, enabled us to utilize the data collected within a short period of time. Data use and access processes were carried out for 97 proposals assigned to 27 different research areas. So far, nine articles have been published in peer-reviewed international journals. CONCLUSION: As a collaborative effort of the whole network, LEOSS developed into a large collection of clinical data on COVID-19 in Germany. Even though in other international projects, much larger data sets could be analysed to investigate specific research questions through direct access to source systems, the uniformly maintained and technically verified documentation standard with many discipline-specific details resulted in a large valuable data set with unique characteristics. The lessons learned while establishing LEOSS during the current pandemic have already created important implications for the design of future registries and for pandemic preparedness and response.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Germany/epidemiology , Health Services Research , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Registries , SARS-CoV-2
9.
PLoS One ; 16(10): e0258684, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1480452

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Patients with cardiovascular comorbidities have a significantly increased risk for a critical course of COVID-19. As the SARS-CoV2 virus enters cells via the angiotensin-converting enzyme receptor II (ACE2), drugs which interact with the renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) were suspected to influence disease severity. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed 1946 consecutive patients with cardiovascular comorbidities or hypertension enrolled in one of the largest European COVID-19 registries, the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 (LEOSS) registry. Here, we show that angiotensin II receptor blocker intake is associated with decreased mortality in patients with COVID-19 [OR 0.75 (95% CI 0,59-0.96; p = 0.013)]. This effect was mainly driven by patients, who presented in an early phase of COVID-19 at baseline [OR 0,64 (95% CI 0,43-0,96; p = 0.029)]. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significantly lower incidence of death in patients on an angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) (n = 33/318;10,4%) compared to patients using an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) (n = 60/348;17,2%) or patients who received neither an ACE-inhibitor nor an ARB at baseline in the uncomplicated phase (n = 90/466; 19,3%; p<0.034). Patients taking an ARB were significantly less frequently reaching the mortality predicting threshold for leukocytes (p<0.001), neutrophils (p = 0.002) and the inflammatory markers CRP (p = 0.021), procalcitonin (p = 0.001) and IL-6 (p = 0.049). ACE2 expression levels in human lung samples were not altered in patients taking RAAS modulators. CONCLUSION: These data suggest a beneficial effect of ARBs on disease severity in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities and COVID-19, which is linked to dampened systemic inflammatory activity.


Subject(s)
Angiotensin Receptor Antagonists/administration & dosage , COVID-19 Drug Treatment , COVID-19 , Hypertension , Registries , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/administration & dosage , Biomarkers/blood , COVID-19/blood , COVID-19/mortality , Comorbidity , Disease-Free Survival , Female , Humans , Hypertension/blood , Hypertension/drug therapy , Hypertension/mortality , Inflammation/blood , Inflammation/drug therapy , Inflammation/mortality , Male , Middle Aged , Severity of Illness Index , Survival Rate
10.
United European Gastroenterol J ; 9(9): 1081-1090, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1469560

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients are at increased risk for thromboembolic events. It is unclear whether the risk for gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is also increased. METHODS: We considered 4128 COVID-19 patients enrolled in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 (LEOSS) registry. The association between occurrence of GI bleeding and comorbidities as well as medication were examined. In addition, 1216 patients from COKA registry were analyzed focusing on endoscopy diagnostic findings. RESULTS: A cumulative number of 97 patients (1.8%) with GI bleeding were identified in the LEOSS registry and COKA registry. Of 4128 patients from the LEOSS registry, 66 patients (1.6%) had a GI bleeding. The rate of GI bleeding in patients with intensive care unit (ICU) admission was 4.5%. The use of therapeutic dose of anticoagulants showed a significant association with the increased incidence of bleeding in the critical phase of disease. The Charlson comorbidity index and the COVID-19 severity index were significantly higher in the group of patients with GI bleeding than in the group of patients without GI bleeding (5.83 (SD = 2.93) vs. 3.66 (SD = 3.06), p < 0.01 and 3.26 (SD = 1.69) vs. 2.33 (SD = 1.53), p < 0.01, respectively). In the COKA registry 31 patients (2.5%) developed a GI bleeding. Of these, the source of bleeding was identified in upper GI tract in 21 patients (67.7%) with ulcer as the most frequent bleeding source (25.8%, n = 8) followed by gastroesophageal reflux (16.1%, n = 5). In three patients (9.7%) GI bleeding source was located in lower GI tract caused mainly by diverticular bleeding (6.5%, n = 2). In seven patients (22.6%) the bleeding localization remained unknown. CONCLUSION: Consistent with previous research, comorbidities and disease severity correlate with the incidence of GI bleeding. Also, therapeutic anticoagulation seems to be associated with a higher risk of GI bleeding. Overall, the risk of GI bleeding seems not to be increased in COVID-19 patients.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Endoscopy, Gastrointestinal , Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Anticoagulants/adverse effects , Child , Child, Preschool , Comorbidity , Critical Illness , Diverticular Diseases/diagnosis , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Gastroesophageal Reflux/complications , Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/etiology , Hospitalization , Humans , Infant , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , Peptic Ulcer/diagnosis , Registries , Severity of Illness Index , Young Adult
11.
Infection ; 50(2): 423-436, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1460516

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Reported antibiotic use in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is far higher than the actual rate of reported bacterial co- and superinfection. A better understanding of antibiotic therapy in COVID-19 is necessary. METHODS: 6457 SARS-CoV-2-infected cases, documented from March 18, 2020, until February 16, 2021, in the LEOSS cohort were analyzed. As primary endpoint, the correlation between any antibiotic treatment and all-cause mortality/progression to the next more advanced phase of disease was calculated for adult patients in the complicated phase of disease and procalcitonin (PCT) ≤ 0.5 ng/ml. The analysis took the confounders gender, age, and comorbidities into account. RESULTS: Three thousand, six hundred twenty-seven cases matched all inclusion criteria for analyses. For the primary endpoint, antibiotic treatment was not correlated with lower all-cause mortality or progression to the next more advanced (critical) phase (n = 996) (both p > 0.05). For the secondary endpoints, patients in the uncomplicated phase (n = 1195), regardless of PCT level, had no lower all-cause mortality and did not progress less to the next more advanced (complicated) phase when treated with antibiotics (p > 0.05). Patients in the complicated phase with PCT > 0.5 ng/ml and antibiotic treatment (n = 286) had a significantly increased all-cause mortality (p = 0.029) but no significantly different probability of progression to the critical phase (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: In this cohort, antibiotics in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients were not associated with positive effects on all-cause mortality or disease progression. Additional studies are needed. Advice of local antibiotic stewardship- (ABS-) teams and local educational campaigns should be sought to improve rational antibiotic use in COVID-19 patients.


Subject(s)
Antimicrobial Stewardship , COVID-19 Drug Treatment , Adult , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Disease Progression , Humans , SARS-CoV-2
12.
J Clin Med ; 10(17)2021 Aug 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1374437

ABSTRACT

(1) Background: The aim of our study was to identify specific risk factors for fatal outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. (2) Methods: Our data set consisted of 840 patients enclosed in the LEOSS registry. Using lasso regression for variable selection, a multifactorial logistic regression model was fitted to the response variable survival. Specific risk factors and their odds ratios were derived. A nomogram was developed as a graphical representation of the model. (3) Results: 14 variables were identified as independent factors contributing to the risk of death for critically ill COVID-19 patients: age (OR 1.08, CI 1.06-1.10), cardiovascular disease (OR 1.64, CI 1.06-2.55), pulmonary disease (OR 1.87, CI 1.16-3.03), baseline Statin treatment (0.54, CI 0.33-0.87), oxygen saturation (unit = 1%, OR 0.94, CI 0.92-0.96), leukocytes (unit 1000/µL, OR 1.04, CI 1.01-1.07), lymphocytes (unit 100/µL, OR 0.96, CI 0.94-0.99), platelets (unit 100,000/µL, OR 0.70, CI 0.62-0.80), procalcitonin (unit ng/mL, OR 1.11, CI 1.05-1.18), kidney failure (OR 1.68, CI 1.05-2.70), congestive heart failure (OR 2.62, CI 1.11-6.21), severe liver failure (OR 4.93, CI 1.94-12.52), and a quick SOFA score of 3 (OR 1.78, CI 1.14-2.78). The nomogram graphically displays the importance of these 14 factors for mortality. (4) Conclusions: There are risk factors that are specific to the subpopulation of critically ill COVID-19 patients.

13.
Infection ; 50(2): 359-370, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1316346

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: While more advanced COVID-19 necessitates medical interventions and hospitalization, patients with mild COVID-19 do not require this. Identifying patients at risk of progressing to advanced COVID-19 might guide treatment decisions, particularly for better prioritizing patients in need for hospitalization. METHODS: We developed a machine learning-based predictor for deriving a clinical score identifying patients with asymptomatic/mild COVID-19 at risk of progressing to advanced COVID-19. Clinical data from SARS-CoV-2 positive patients from the multicenter Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS) were used for discovery (2020-03-16 to 2020-07-14) and validation (data from 2020-07-15 to 2021-02-16). RESULTS: The LEOSS dataset contains 473 baseline patient parameters measured at the first patient contact. After training the predictor model on a training dataset comprising 1233 patients, 20 of the 473 parameters were selected for the predictor model. From the predictor model, we delineated a composite predictive score (SACOV-19, Score for the prediction of an Advanced stage of COVID-19) with eleven variables. In the validation cohort (n = 2264 patients), we observed good prediction performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.73 ± 0.01. Besides temperature, age, body mass index and smoking habit, variables indicating pulmonary involvement (respiration rate, oxygen saturation, dyspnea), inflammation (CRP, LDH, lymphocyte counts), and acute kidney injury at diagnosis were identified. For better interpretability, the predictor was translated into a web interface. CONCLUSION: We present a machine learning-based predictor model and a clinical score for identifying patients at risk of developing advanced COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Early Warning Score , Area Under Curve , COVID-19/diagnosis , Humans , Machine Learning , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
14.
Infection ; 49(4): 725-737, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1182343

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The ongoing pandemic caused by the novel severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has stressed health systems worldwide. Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) seem to be more prone to a severe course of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) due to comorbidities and an altered immune system. The study's aim was to identify factors predicting mortality among SARS-CoV-2-infected patients with CKD. METHODS: We analyzed 2817 SARS-CoV-2-infected patients enrolled in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients and identified 426 patients with pre-existing CKD. Group comparisons were performed via Chi-squared test. Using univariate and multivariable logistic regression, predictive factors for mortality were identified. RESULTS: Comparative analyses to patients without CKD revealed a higher mortality (140/426, 32.9% versus 354/2391, 14.8%). Higher age could be confirmed as a demographic predictor for mortality in CKD patients (> 85 years compared to 15-65 years, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 6.49, 95% CI 1.27-33.20, p = 0.025). We further identified markedly elevated lactate dehydrogenase (> 2 × upper limit of normal, aOR 23.21, 95% CI 3.66-147.11, p < 0.001), thrombocytopenia (< 120,000/µl, aOR 11.66, 95% CI 2.49-54.70, p = 0.002), anemia (Hb < 10 g/dl, aOR 3.21, 95% CI 1.17-8.82, p = 0.024), and C-reactive protein (≥ 30 mg/l, aOR 3.44, 95% CI 1.13-10.45, p = 0.029) as predictors, while renal replacement therapy was not related to mortality (aOR 1.15, 95% CI 0.68-1.93, p = 0.611). CONCLUSION: The identified predictors include routinely measured and universally available parameters. Their assessment might facilitate risk stratification in this highly vulnerable cohort as early as at initial medical evaluation for SARS-CoV-2.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/mortality , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/complications , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescent , Adult , Aged, 80 and over , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Humans , Logistic Models , Middle Aged , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/immunology , Risk Factors , Young Adult
16.
Clin Res Cardiol ; 110(7): 1029-1040, 2021 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-932521

ABSTRACT

AIMS: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with cardiovascular disease. Here, we analyzed whether specific biomarkers predict the clinical course of COVID-19 in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled 2147 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection which were included in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV­2 (LEOSS)-registry from March to June 2020. Clinical data and laboratory values were collected and compared between patients with and without cardiovascular comorbidities in different clinical stages of the disease. Predictors for mortality were calculated using multivariate regression analysis. We show that patients with cardiovascular comorbidities display significantly higher markers of myocardial injury and thrombo-inflammatory activation already in the uncomplicated phase of COVID-19. In multivariate analysis, elevated levels of troponin [OR 1.54; (95% CI 1.22-1.96), p < 0.001)], IL-6 [OR 1.69 (95% CI 1.26-2.27), p < 0.013)], and CRP [OR 1.32; (95% CI 1.1-1.58), p < 0.003)] were predictors of mortality in patients with COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Patients with cardiovascular comorbidities show elevated markers of thrombo-inflammatory activation and myocardial injury, which predict mortality, already in the uncomplicated phase of COVID-19. Starting targeted anti-inflammatory therapy and aggressive anticoagulation already in the uncomplicated phase of the disease might improve outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities. Elevated markers of thrombo-inflammatory activation predict outcome in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities and COVID-19 disease: insights from the LEOSS registry.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Cardiovascular Diseases/physiopathology , Inflammation/pathology , Thrombosis/pathology , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Biomarkers/metabolism , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Registries , Young Adult
17.
Infection ; 49(1): 63-73, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-812468

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Knowledge regarding patients' clinical condition at severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detection is sparse. Data in the international, multicenter Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients (LEOSS) cohort study may enhance the understanding of COVID-19. METHODS: Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of SARS-CoV-2-infected patients, enrolled in the LEOSS cohort study between March 16, 2020, and May 14, 2020, were analyzed. Associations between baseline characteristics and clinical stages at diagnosis (uncomplicated vs. complicated) were assessed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: We included 2155 patients, 59.7% (1,287/2,155) were male; the most common age category was 66-85 years (39.6%; 500/2,155). The primary COVID-19 diagnosis was made in 35.0% (755/2,155) during complicated clinical stages. A significant univariate association between age; sex; body mass index; smoking; diabetes; cardiovascular, pulmonary, neurological, and kidney diseases; ACE inhibitor therapy; statin intake and an increased risk for complicated clinical stages of COVID-19 at diagnosis was found. Multivariable analysis revealed that advanced age [46-65 years: adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.73, 95% CI 1.25-2.42, p = 0.001; 66-85 years: aOR 1.93, 95% CI 1.36-2.74, p < 0.001; > 85 years: aOR 2.38, 95% CI 1.49-3.81, p < 0.001 vs. individuals aged 26-45 years], male sex (aOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.50, p = 0.040), cardiovascular disease (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.09-1.72, p = 0.007), and diabetes (aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.04-1.69, p = 0.023) were associated with complicated stages of COVID-19 at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: The LEOSS cohort identified age, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and male sex as risk factors for complicated disease stages at SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, thus confirming previous data. Further data regarding outcomes of the natural course of COVID-19 and the influence of treatment are required.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Kidney Diseases/epidemiology , Lung Diseases/epidemiology , Pandemics , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/adverse effects , Body Mass Index , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/physiopathology , COVID-19/virology , Cardiovascular Diseases/diagnosis , Cardiovascular Diseases/physiopathology , Cardiovascular Diseases/virology , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnosis , Diabetes Mellitus/physiopathology , Diabetes Mellitus/virology , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors/adverse effects , Kidney Diseases/diagnosis , Kidney Diseases/physiopathology , Kidney Diseases/virology , Logistic Models , Lung Diseases/diagnosis , Lung Diseases/physiopathology , Lung Diseases/virology , Male , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Severity of Illness Index , Sex Factors
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